ALITP Pt. 5- Matchups, Predictions, some Loose Ends

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After 82 games: This is it.

Wed, April 15	7:00	FSN, Versus
Fri, April 17	7:00	FSN, Versus
Sun, April 19	3:00	NBC
Tue, April 21	7:00	FSN, Versus
Thur, April 23*	7:00	FSN, Versus
Sat, April 25*	3:00	NBC
Mon, April 27*	7:00	FSN, Versus

Here are my predictions for the first round in the
Western Conference:

• San Jose over Anaheim, 6 games.
• Calgary over Chicago, 6 games.
• Vancouver over St. Louis, 7 games.
• Detroit over Columbus, 5 games.

I can’t offer any real insights into the Western Conference; I just don’t follow it that closely. But now we come to…

The Eastern Conference

8 Montreal over 1 Boston
7 games.
Montreal was able to score 4 on Tim Thomas in an OT loss last week. You can’t feel good about that if you’re Boston. Montreal’s defense shuts down MarkyMark and crew.
Boston Bruins vs. TPC Boston—Tuesday, April 28th

7 New York over 2 Washington
6 games.
Could Pens fans have wanted a better matchup for the Caps?
The Rags’ penalty kill has been lights out since Tortorella took over at 91.5%. If they can shut down the Caps’ power play and score some 5v5 goals, last season’s nightmare becomes this season’s reality for the Washington Capitals.

6 Carolina over 3 New Jersey
6 games.
That’s right. I picked each of the top 3 teams in the east to lose in the first round. Will it happen? maybe not, but it’s more of a possibility this post-season than most. Carolina has been peaking at the right time, but will their defense hold up? Cam Ward will steal the series, but he’ll break down during the second round.

And finally, the moment you’ve read this far for…or scrolled to…

4 Pittsburgh over 5 Philadelphia
7 games.

You had to know that I’d pick Pittsburgh, but lets keep it real. Coach John Stevens was quoted saying,

"You have to go into this series with a checking mind-set. The games that we've had success in we played with an emotional edge but had that line of discipline."

I hope they come into the series with a defensive mind-set. That’s just laying down the framework to sit in your own zone and play defense for 60min, a strategy that worked for Michel Therrien so well, in fact, that GMRS decided it was worth paying him to not coach.

The Flyers will focus all of their attention on Malkin and Crosby, another strategy that’s worked.
Here are Crosby’s stats against the Flyers this season.

Screwy Pic. Click it.

Malkin has 7pts against the Flyers this season. I’m not doing a pic for him…due to the way the one above turned out.

I am please with how that turned out though.

The Flyers are good, just like they were last year,
The Pens are good, just like they were last year,
Both might even be a little better.
But when they asked last season, “Why not us?”
The answer was simply,”Because of the Penguins.”

Go Pens.

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Evgeni Art Ross Malkin

Should be Evgeni Hart Malkin,

Will be Evgeni Conn Smyth Malkin.

The Pens played their final game of the season tonight in Montreal.

Miro is back, but didn’t dress
After today, we can officially look at the brackets.
Maybe even later today on here.
lots more. jump.

Malkin beat Ovechkin by 3pts.

D-bag.





That’s the fist-pump of NHL’s Leading Scorer.
Can’t see that enough.

Open it in a new window to resize.

So I wanted to take a look at some conventional stats in some unconventional ways…
And then try to make something of it.

What you’re looking at is a chart that uses Penguin player’s height and weight to determine a very raw “density” value.

Now I realize that this stat lacks some validity because it doesn’t address a lot of variables.But this is patternicity,

I’m looking for a pattern or some significance, where there is none.

But because I believe in it, it is so.

So have fun.

I wish I could tell you why that looked so bad. click it.

Lets get this out of the way…There’s not much of a difference between the highest score and the lowest; the range being .732152lb/in, or about 3/4 lb/in…for dumbasses.
This chart really just serves as an interesting order of the players’ names…some players are next to others that they would almost never be compared to by any other statistic.

Make of it what you will, but here are a few observations:

If someone told you that Miro Satan was the least physically dense forward on the team before you saw that chart…
Would you have been surprised?
Maybe this isn’t “proof”, but damn. Only Fleury scores lower.
Only 1 forward in the top 5…
Oh, Grandpa.

But the next one is Jordan Staal.
Is there a better place to go off on a tangent?
We all knew he was big,
but can someone stop Paul Steigerwald from talking about how he’s going to “fill out”?

6’4-220 Jordan Staal
6’4-218 Rick Nash
6’4-221 Dany Heatley
6’4-221 Ryan Getzlaf
6’3-220 Johan Franzen

And as much as it pains me to make a “Staal Brothers” reference:
Eric is 6’4 205
Marc is 6’4 209
Jared is 6’3 195

So unless Staal has Godzilla genes…or a pituitary adenoma
This is probably it, and that’s not disappointing.

Remember, when the Penguins drafted him,
Malkin wasn’t a sure thing,
And as much as Jordan Staal is labeled a “shut-down center”
It doesn’t do him justice.

Also…Would you have expected Crosby to be next to Godard?
This is a physical comparison of the players… I can see Dupuis and Godard, they’re really not built all that different.

The great equalizer is Crosby’s fat ass.
(Chandler and Ellen, towards the bottom)
Go Pens.

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Changes

So there are going to be some changes around Pensomniac.
Posts have been on hiatus for a little bit, but I'm learning new stuff to help make this better.

Go check out thePensblog. Get involved.

Click and continue...

I’ve more or less figured out how to do this “read more” thing.

The homepage will be much more navigable as you will be able to see multiple posts without scrolling forever.

That’s probably pretty disappointing to everyone else, but for me, it’s a breakthrough.

I’ve been working on some photoshops and getting a few posts prepared. When they’re ready, they’ll be good.

We’ll be doing a final look into the playoffs, covering the rags, the habs, and the flyers.

There’ll be a post after the seeding is set. Predictions and what not.

My thoughts on TK.

Good things. You should be excited, I sure am.

Click that to see the original.

Go Pens.

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ALITP Pt 4. Canes and Panthers

Been away for a while and haven’t been able to post.
The Pens have played 3 times since I last got anything done.

Ugh.

The Carolina Hurricanes

An NHL team since 1979, First Stanley Cup in 2005/06.
And a rich tradition it is.

Offense

Name	Points	+/-	Shooting
Ray Whitney	24g-50a-74pts	+4	212 11.3%
Eric Staal	39g-35a-74pts	+15	360 10.0%
Tuomo Ruutu	26g-28a-54pts	-4	179 13.4%
Rod Brind’Amour	16g-33a-49pts	-21	130 11.5%

Eric Staal and Erik Cole have been reunited. They play well together. Good Chemistry.

Ray Whitney has been doing it since ‘91 and he’s been doing it consistently since 1993-94.

Tuomo Ruutu is not Jarkko Ruutu.

In the beginning of the season, Brind’Amour blew.
Lately, not so much. He was –32 or something like that…

Weird.

Defense

Name	Points	+/-	Hits/Blocked Shots
Joe Corvo	14g-24a-38pts	+3	40/89
Joni Pitkanen	7g-26a-33pts	+10	62/121
Anton Babchuck	14g-18a-32pts	+13	22/108
Dennis Seidenberg	5g-25a-30pts	-10	144/153
Tim Gleason	0g-12a-12pts	+5	167/130
Niclas Wallin	2g-8a-10pts	0	126/76

I never really thought about it until now…2:46AM…but there are typically only 6 dressed defensemen on a roster.
Why not cover the defense a little better with the chart.

So we saw what Joni Pitkanen had to offer the other day. He’s a slick skater with a good head for the game.

We also saw Anton Babchuck. And his slapper.

This defense joins every rush and produces points.

Does this defense really play a playoff style?
That remains to be seen.

Goaltending

Cam Ward is half grinch/half hulk.
He steals playoff joy…
And turns green when angry.

2.44GAA
.917
38-22-5
Legit.

So What?!

Carolina is the other team that nobody wants to play.

Staal and Cole are back together, Cam Ward is hot.
Everything is going for these guys right now.

They just crushed the Isles 9-0.

Last game the Isles gave up 9?
Game 29: December 11, 2008
9-2 Pens over Isles.

Pens then go sour for a month…and slide into 10th.
Bad omen for the Canes?

The Florida Panthers

The Rags have made it possible for Florida to go to the Playoffs.

Florida hasn’t really made this worth my while.

Name	Points	+/-	Shooting%
Stephen Weiss	14g-43a-57pts	+15	9.6
David Booth	28g-26a-54pts	+8	12.0
Cory Stillman	16g-32a-48pts	0	14.4
Nathan Horton	21g-22a-43pts	-5	16.5

Impressive? Not individually. But don’t be fooled easily; the offense is actually pretty deep.

David Booth is 24 years old and in his 3rd NHL season. His 28 goals are going to be much louder this summer than they were this season. He’ll be an RFA after this season and you can bet he’s going to want a raise. He’s going to make $675k this season.

Yeah. That’s right. The easy way out.
I took it.
And now Mr. Horton has some Whos.

Nathan Horton…For a while it looked like he was going to be the scoring winger that Shero/Crosby/the Pens needed/still need. In all honesty, I can’t say whether that was legitimate or just a rumor from someone’s comments section, but he’d look nice in black and Vegas gold.

Supporting cast in Dvorak, Frolik, Stillman, Zednik

The panthers also get some offense provided by Bouwmeester, McCabe, and even Ballard.

Jaybo is overrated.

This team has an even plus/minus, 223g for and against

Tomas Vokoun-2.48GAA, .926Sv%, 6 shutouts, 24-22-6.

I’m getting sick of talking about the Panthers…as if you couldn’t tell by this point.

If they get into the playoffs…then get past the first round, I’ll feel bad that I didn’t look at them harder.

Check out a cool trick.

Go Pens.

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ALITP Pt. 3 The Washington Capitals

Finally. You’d think that I’ve been tirelessly working to make this the best post possible.

You’d be wrong.

So the Caps are having a good year. They’re 47-23-7 for 101pts, good for the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

If the playoffs started today…the Caps would be playing the Rags. Realistically, they could see the Rags, the Habs, the Canes, the Pens, and the Panthers.

Although the Panthers have won 3 straight, no one has slipped far enough to allow them into the top 8.

Scroll to the Bottom if you don’t care.

Offense

Name	Points	+/-	shots	shooting%
Ovechkin	54g-47a-101pts	+12	487	11.1%
Backstrom	22g-60a-82pts	+15	168	13.1%
Semin	29g-43a-72pts	+25	201	14.1%
Green	30g-40a-70pts	+24	233	12.9%

Ovechkin is a big deal…but who doesn’t know that already. The guy is, for the most part, one-dimensional. He skates and shoots.

And takes cheap shots. Say what you want about Sid, you won’t see him pull one of those.

He might punch you in the sack though.

Semin led the league in scoring until he got hurt. His +25 is telling too. He plays responsible, 2-way hockey, and some would argue that he’s the most complete player on the Capitals.

Backstrom… This guy is a patient, playmaking center. He doesn’t shoot much though—but when your left wing has over 400 shots—do you need to?

Mike Green’s having a good season…and his 30 goals might not be a fluke. The guy can shoot the puck and knows when to join the rush.

Viktor Kozlov is 6’5, 235lbs. Did anyone realize that? Does he?

At this point there are  2 roads that it can take…

Let’s take the high road.

1 Olympics, 1 Gold Medal, 2 Happy Endings.

Defense

John Erskine, Mike Green, Milan Jurcina, Brian Pothier, Tom Poti, Jeff Schulz, and a man who knows a thing or two about having his name misspelled…Shaone Morrisonn.

Is this the defense you want for a run to the Cup?

Eh.

The Capitals are 19th in the league with 2.86ga/g.

The Penguins are 18th…But did the Caps go a month and a half without winning? No.

 

Goaltending

Name	Record	SO	Save%	GAA
Jose Theodore	30-16-5	2	.902	2.80
Simeon Varlamov	3-0-0	0	.939	1.74

Varlamov is going to be the #1 in a few years. But not yet.

For now…Jose Theodore, a talented goalie with a penchant for dramatic.  He’s had some problems with focus over the years.

Want to score on him? Go top shelf. This guy drops faster than the Caps will in the first round.

One of those goalies that’s a little too fast for his own good at times.

Finasteride, a banned steroid-masking agent, is marketed as Propecia; and it will help you grow a beautiful head of hair.

Special Teams

The Caps Power Play is No. 2 at 25.2%, good for 79 goals.

Ovechkin is #1 in PP points, 18g-25a-43p

Next biggest threats come from:
Nicklas Backstrom 14g-27a-41pts #3
and Mike Green 18g-19a-37pts

Subtract those 3 players; you still have 29 goals on the Power play.

The Caps Penalty Kill is #20 at 80.0%

They’re not really a shorthanded threat…Ovechkin doesn’t kill penalties.

The Caps have given up 10 shorthanded goals this season.

So What?

The Capitals have the most prolific goal scorer in the game today.

They also have a respectable goaltender, a defense led by high-scoring Mike Green, and a top notch offensive supporting cast.

The Capitals have:	The Penguins have:
8 players with 10+ 6 have 15+ 4 have 20+ 2 have 30+ 1 has 50+	12 players have 10+ 7 have 15+ 6 have 20+ 2 have 30+ 0 have 50+

More like an illusion of depth.

I’m picking them to lose in the first round. Again.

Why?

 

Go Pens.

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